立即打开
面临“无协议脱欧”,投资者很受伤

面临“无协议脱欧”,投资者很受伤

Oliva Konotey-Ahulu, Michael Msika, 彭博社 2020年09月15日
英国与欧盟在10月最后期限之前达成贸易协议的可能性越来越小,上周英国表示有可能放弃。

这一年随着新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延,各国央行纷纷加大流动性,投资者还要应对今年基本上已经被忽略的风险:英国脱欧。

英国与欧盟在10月最后期限之前达成贸易协议的可能性越来越小,上周英国表示有可能放弃,还有可能违反国际法。基金经理表示,英镑可能跌至35年低点,股票涨幅落后其他市场,以及因为外界猜测英国央行会降息,而使债券收益率首次出现负值。

“如果风险资产大量抛售,英国脱欧结果不理想,英镑很有可能跌破3月的低点。”德盛安联资产管理(Allianz Global Investors)的投资组合经理迈克•里德尔表示。一旦如此,跌幅将达到12%,至1.14美元左右,这是自1985年以来最低水平。

如今谈判已经陷入僵局,英镑也经历了自3月新冠病毒席卷全英国以来持续最久的跌幅,避险短期债券的收益率也创下历史新低。

此前,贸易谈判失败相关风险并不显著,毕竟新冠病毒对经济的影响更受关注。2016年脱欧公投以来,英镑一直是脱欧进程体现在市场上的晴雨表,与10国集团其他货币共同对美元上涨。

无协议脱欧的几率

由于对英国脱欧的结果相当得意,最近几个月里德尔增加了英镑空头头寸,还把英镑当作针对美元和日元的避险对冲工具。NatWest Group Plc预测无协议脱欧的几率将提高至40%,英镑汇率将下跌至1.20美元。野村国际(Nomura International Plc)认为,随着时间越拖越长,几率将上升到50%。

相比之下,彭博社调查的分析师预计,到2020年年底,英镑只会小幅下跌至1.30美元,明年将上涨。高盛、摩根大通和摩根士丹利的经济学家都预计,12月底将达成协议。

上周英国与欧盟正式谈判恢复,投资者再次嗅到风险。英国首相鲍里斯•约翰逊表示,如果10月中旬之前达不成协议而只能妥协,就会宣布谈判破裂。英政府官员还起草了可能破坏谈判的法律,北爱尔兰部长布兰登•刘易斯承认该举动将违反国际法。

欧盟首席脱欧谈判代表迈克尔•巴尼尔对此表示“担心和失望”。

贸易紧张局势加剧导致三个月里英镑对冲波动成本显著增加,达到4月以来最高水平,约翰逊言论传出后,市场预计英镑12月会贬值,出现六个月以来最严重的跳水。

价值陷阱

英国脱欧一直拖累股市,富时100指数与MSCI全球指数相比跌至历史新低。英镑下跌可能提振出口商,但8月美国银行一项调查显示,投资者在英国市场减持力度比其他国家都要大。

“我们认为英国市场是价值陷阱。”Principal Global Investors的首席策略师希玛•沙阿表示。“估值可能有吸引力,但基本面并不稳。”

除脱欧外,英国也是欧洲受疫情影响最严重的经济体之一,下个月必须决定是继续支持数百万休假的员工,还是经受失业人数激增的打击。

再加上担心出现硬性脱欧局面,英国的企业可能面临更多痛苦,从而进一步刺激对安全国债的需求。基准收益率已经跌至3月疫情来袭时的创纪录低位,两年期债券利率跌至负0.156%的历史低点。

Legal&General Investment Management的多种资产基金负责人约翰•罗预计,如果对贸易谈判崩溃的担心将提升英国利率降为负值的可能性,国债利率会出现反弹。NatWest的全球经济联席主管罗斯•沃克表示,不管达成什么交易,英国央行都不会将利率下调至负0.5%。

货币市场已经将英国央行调降至负利率的前瞻定价定为3月水平,而上周早些时候定价还保持在9月价位。由于可能出现混乱,可能有更多人买入国债。

“要记住,英国央行的预测主要基于英国能够与欧盟达成完整的贸易协议。”汇丰控股的英国利率策略负责人丹妮拉•罗素表示,她认为到年底10年期国债收益率将降至零。

Nordea Bank Abp的首席策略师扬•冯•格里奇表示,明年收益率跌破零降为负值的可能性为40%。

极简版协议

投资总监亚伦•罗克称,只要达成“极简”版自由贸易协议就可以避免出现负利率局面,而阿伯丁标准投资公司会坚持公债。

花旗集团的外汇策略师亚当•皮克特表示,市场定价并未考虑英国与欧盟最后一刻达成协议的可能性,因此认为英镑兑美元可能回升至1.35。

脱欧疲劳可能是当前市场基本上都在期待达成协议的原因之一。 无论结果如何,基金经理都会高兴地迎来终局,毕竟这件大事曾经害得他们在投票延误搅动市场后夜夜加班,还击垮了两任首相,英国都因此分裂。

阿伯丁标准投资公司的罗克说:“已经拖太久了, 如果能够顺利推进,对各方都是好事。”(钜富中国网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

这一年随着新冠肺炎疫情在全球蔓延,各国央行纷纷加大流动性,投资者还要应对今年基本上已经被忽略的风险:英国脱欧。

英国与欧盟在10月最后期限之前达成贸易协议的可能性越来越小,上周英国表示有可能放弃,还有可能违反国际法。基金经理表示,英镑可能跌至35年低点,股票涨幅落后其他市场,以及因为外界猜测英国央行会降息,而使债券收益率首次出现负值。

“如果风险资产大量抛售,英国脱欧结果不理想,英镑很有可能跌破3月的低点。”德盛安联资产管理(Allianz Global Investors)的投资组合经理迈克•里德尔表示。一旦如此,跌幅将达到12%,至1.14美元左右,这是自1985年以来最低水平。

如今谈判已经陷入僵局,英镑也经历了自3月新冠病毒席卷全英国以来持续最久的跌幅,避险短期债券的收益率也创下历史新低。

此前,贸易谈判失败相关风险并不显著,毕竟新冠病毒对经济的影响更受关注。2016年脱欧公投以来,英镑一直是脱欧进程体现在市场上的晴雨表,与10国集团其他货币共同对美元上涨。

无协议脱欧的几率

由于对英国脱欧的结果相当得意,最近几个月里德尔增加了英镑空头头寸,还把英镑当作针对美元和日元的避险对冲工具。NatWest Group Plc预测无协议脱欧的几率将提高至40%,英镑汇率将下跌至1.20美元。野村国际(Nomura International Plc)认为,随着时间越拖越长,几率将上升到50%。

相比之下,彭博社调查的分析师预计,到2020年年底,英镑只会小幅下跌至1.30美元,明年将上涨。高盛、摩根大通和摩根士丹利的经济学家都预计,12月底将达成协议。

上周英国与欧盟正式谈判恢复,投资者再次嗅到风险。英国首相鲍里斯•约翰逊表示,如果10月中旬之前达不成协议而只能妥协,就会宣布谈判破裂。英政府官员还起草了可能破坏谈判的法律,北爱尔兰部长布兰登•刘易斯承认该举动将违反国际法。

欧盟首席脱欧谈判代表迈克尔•巴尼尔对此表示“担心和失望”。

贸易紧张局势加剧导致三个月里英镑对冲波动成本显著增加,达到4月以来最高水平,约翰逊言论传出后,市场预计英镑12月会贬值,出现六个月以来最严重的跳水。

价值陷阱

英国脱欧一直拖累股市,富时100指数与MSCI全球指数相比跌至历史新低。英镑下跌可能提振出口商,但8月美国银行一项调查显示,投资者在英国市场减持力度比其他国家都要大。

“我们认为英国市场是价值陷阱。”Principal Global Investors的首席策略师希玛•沙阿表示。“估值可能有吸引力,但基本面并不稳。”

除脱欧外,英国也是欧洲受疫情影响最严重的经济体之一,下个月必须决定是继续支持数百万休假的员工,还是经受失业人数激增的打击。

再加上担心出现硬性脱欧局面,英国的企业可能面临更多痛苦,从而进一步刺激对安全国债的需求。基准收益率已经跌至3月疫情来袭时的创纪录低位,两年期债券利率跌至负0.156%的历史低点。

Legal&General Investment Management的多种资产基金负责人约翰•罗预计,如果对贸易谈判崩溃的担心将提升英国利率降为负值的可能性,国债利率会出现反弹。NatWest的全球经济联席主管罗斯•沃克表示,不管达成什么交易,英国央行都不会将利率下调至负0.5%。

货币市场已经将英国央行调降至负利率的前瞻定价定为3月水平,而上周早些时候定价还保持在9月价位。由于可能出现混乱,可能有更多人买入国债。

“要记住,英国央行的预测主要基于英国能够与欧盟达成完整的贸易协议。”汇丰控股的英国利率策略负责人丹妮拉•罗素表示,她认为到年底10年期国债收益率将降至零。

Nordea Bank Abp的首席策略师扬•冯•格里奇表示,明年收益率跌破零降为负值的可能性为40%。

极简版协议

投资总监亚伦•罗克称,只要达成“极简”版自由贸易协议就可以避免出现负利率局面,而阿伯丁标准投资公司会坚持公债。

花旗集团的外汇策略师亚当•皮克特表示,市场定价并未考虑英国与欧盟最后一刻达成协议的可能性,因此认为英镑兑美元可能回升至1.35。

脱欧疲劳可能是当前市场基本上都在期待达成协议的原因之一。 无论结果如何,基金经理都会高兴地迎来终局,毕竟这件大事曾经害得他们在投票延误搅动市场后夜夜加班,还击垮了两任首相,英国都因此分裂。

阿伯丁标准投资公司的罗克说:“已经拖太久了, 如果能够顺利推进,对各方都是好事。”(钜富中国网)

译者:冯丰

审校:夏林

In a year that’s featured a global pandemic and a tidal wave of liquidity from central banks, investors are bracing themselves for a risk they’ve ignored for most of 2020: Brexit.

The prospect of the U.K. and European Union reaching a trade agreement by an October deadline is looking less likely, with Britain saying last week it’s willing to walk away and break international law in the process. That risks the pound falling to a 35-year low, stocks that lag international peers, and bond yields turning negative for the first time amid bets on Bank of England interest-rate cuts, fund managers say.

“If we have a big selloff in risk assets, and a bad Brexit outcome, then there’s no reason the pound couldn’t fall back through the March lows,” said Mike Riddell, a portfolio manager at Allianz Global Investors. That would mean a 12% slump to around $1.14, the lowest since 1985.

The stalemate in discussions has already seen the pound suffer its longest losing streak since March when Covid-19 started to rip through the country, and has sent the yield on haven short-term bonds to record lows.

Until recently, the risks associated with failed trade talks had been in the background, overshadowed by the economic fallout of the coronavirus. The pound, which has acted as a market barometer to Brexit since the 2016 referendum, had been rallying along with other currencies in Group-of-10 nations against the U.S. dollar.

No-Deal Odds

Complacency around Brexit prompted Riddell to add to a short pound position in recent months and use sterling as a risk-off hedge, mainly against the U.S. dollar and the yen. NatWest Group Plc has upped the chances of no deal to 40%, a result it sees dragging sterling down to $1.20. Nomura International Plc sees the odds rising to 50% over time.

By contrast analysts in a Bloomberg survey expect only a mild drop in the currency to $1.30 by end-2020 and then gains next year. Economists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Morgan Stanley all still anticipate a deal on commerce will be in place for the end of December.

But with formal talks between the U.K. and EU resumed last week, the risks are back on investors’ radar. Prime Minister Boris Johnson signaled he would let the talks collapse if a deal isn’t made before mid-October rather than compromise. Officials have also drafted a law that risks undermining the negotiations, a move that Northern Ireland Minister Brandon Lewis conceded would break international law.

The EU’s chief Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier is “worried and disappointed.”

The flare-up in trade tensions has increased the cost of hedging swings in sterling over three months to the highest level since April, while Johnson’s comments spurred the biggest jump for six months in options betting on a fall in the currency by December.

Value Trap

Brexit has been a drag on the nation’s equities, with the FTSE 100 falling to a record low against the MSCI World Index. While a slide in the pound may provide a boost for exporters, investors are more underweight on the U.K. than on any other country examined in a Bank of America fund survey for August.

“We see the U.K. as a value trap,” said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. “Valuations might be attractive but fundamentals are not.”

In addition to Brexit, the U.K. is suffering one of the biggest hits to growth in Europe from the pandemic, and must decide next month whether to keep supporting millions of furloughed workers or face a surge in unemployment.

That could mean more pain for U.K. Plc, which combined with concern over a painful transition from the EU, may further fuel demand for the safety of gilts. Benchmark yields have fallen near a record set during the pandemic shock in March, and the rate on two-year bonds dropped to an all-time low of minus 0.156%.

John Roe, head of multi-asset funds at Legal & General Investment Management, expects government bonds to rally if fears that trade talks will collapse drive up the possibility of U.K. interest rates going negative. No deal could lead the BOE to slash rates to minus 0.5%, said Ross Walker, NatWest’s co-head of global economics.

Money markets have already brought forward pricing on a BOE cut below zero to March, compared to September earlier last week. The potential for turmoil also raises the chances for more central bank bond buying.

“It’s worth remembering that the Bank of England’s forecasts are based on the U.K. reaching a full trade agreement with the EU,” said Daniela Russell, head of U.K. rates strategy for HSBC Holdings Plc, who sees 10-year yields falling to zero by the end of the year.

There’s a 40% chance yields could go below that to turn negative in the next year, said Jan von Gerich, a chief strategist at Nordea Bank Abp.

Bare Bones

A ‘bare-bones’ free trade deal would be enough to avoid such a scenario and lead Aberdeen Standard Investments to be underweight gilts, said Aaron Rock, an investment director.

And Citigroup Inc. foreign-exchange strategist Adam Pickett said the market hasn’t priced in the likelihood of the U.K. and the EU moving toward a last-minute agreement, targeting a pound climb back to $1.35.

Brexit fatigue could be one reason why markets are so far mostly positioned for a deal. Either way, fund managers will be glad to see the back of an issue that has forced them to work nights after late votes that flipped markets, defeated two prime ministers and divided the country.

“It has dragged on long enough,” said Rock at Aberdeen Standard. “It will be better for all concerned if we can move on.”

最新:
  • 热读文章
  • 热门视频
活动
扫码打开钜富Plus App