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美国关店潮远未结束,预计到2026年将达8万家

美国关店潮远未结束,预计到2026年将达8万家

PHIL WAHBA 2021年04月07日
该预测所依据的假设是:届时,电商销售额在零售总额中的占比将从目前的18%(已比预期高出几个百分点)跃升至27%。

过去几年,美国零售商已宣布关闭了无数家门店,目前关店潮仍在持续。在周一发布的一份研究报告中,瑞银(UBS)预测,到2026年,美国还将有8万家零售店永久关闭,约占目前零售店总数的9%。

该预测所依据的假设是:届时,电商销售额在零售总额中的占比将从目前的18%(已比预期高出几个百分点)跃升至27%。

“此次新冠疫情有一个持久影响,即网络普及率急剧上升,”零售业股票分析师迈克尔•拉瑟在一份为客户出具的长达94页的研究报告中写道。“我们预计,这一趋势仍将持续,并将会推动零售店进一步合理布局。”

一些大型零售商的财报证实了拉瑟的说法。诺德斯特龙 (Nordstrom)在假期季度的线上销售额占其销售总额的54%,而梅西百货(Macy's)则为44%。盖璞集团(Gap Inc.)表示,最近一个财年,电商业务占比近一半。说到盖璞,该公司在新冠疫情引起的动荡期间关闭了其多家连锁店,因为其预计至少有一半业务很快就会永久性地转到线上。

瑞银预测,服装零售商关闭的门店将最多,约21,000家,其中多数在室内购物中心。(此次关店潮对大型商场的零售商并无太大影响。)

其次是8,000家消费类电子产品门店,以及7,000家家具门店。这两类产品的销售额总体呈增长态势,但线上销售增长远高于零售门店。疫情期间的大赢家百思买(Best Buy)最近宣布,将缩减其门店的销售区,以便为电商业务提供更多空间。

塔吉特(Target)和沃尔玛(Walmart)等大型百货零售商并未关闭商店,部分原因是他们已经全面调整了其实体店位置,既便于线上订单的配送,又便于买家取货。

2019年,零售企业破产及门店关闭数量创下纪录,共有9,832家门店关闭,之后,关店潮仍在继续。2020年,有8,741家门店关闭,到目前为止,2021年已有3,169家门店关闭。但又有数千家新店开业,标志着零售业革新的开始。开设新店的零售商包括一元店(dollar stores)等连锁店,以及在大型商场内设有门店的一些品牌零售商,包括迪克体育用品(Dick’s Sporting Goods),美妆连锁店Ulta Beauty等等。(钜富中国网)

翻译:郝秀

审校:汪皓

过去几年,美国零售商已宣布关闭了无数家门店,目前关店潮仍在持续。在周一发布的一份研究报告中,瑞银(UBS)预测,到2026年,美国还将有8万家零售店永久关闭,约占目前零售店总数的9%。

该预测所依据的假设是:届时,电商销售额在零售总额中的占比将从目前的18%(已比预期高出几个百分点)跃升至27%。

“此次新冠疫情有一个持久影响,即网络普及率急剧上升,”零售业股票分析师迈克尔•拉瑟在一份为客户出具的长达94页的研究报告中写道。“我们预计,这一趋势仍将持续,并将会推动零售店进一步合理布局。”

一些大型零售商的财报证实了拉瑟的说法。诺德斯特龙 (Nordstrom)在假期季度的线上销售额占其销售总额的54%,而梅西百货(Macy's)则为44%。盖璞集团(Gap Inc.)表示,最近一个财年,电商业务占比近一半。说到盖璞,该公司在新冠疫情引起的动荡期间关闭了其多家连锁店,因为其预计至少有一半业务很快就会永久性地转到线上。

瑞银预测,服装零售商关闭的门店将最多,约21,000家,其中多数在室内购物中心。(此次关店潮对大型商场的零售商并无太大影响。)

其次是8,000家消费类电子产品门店,以及7,000家家具门店。这两类产品的销售额总体呈增长态势,但线上销售增长远高于零售门店。疫情期间的大赢家百思买(Best Buy)最近宣布,将缩减其门店的销售区,以便为电商业务提供更多空间。

塔吉特(Target)和沃尔玛(Walmart)等大型百货零售商并未关闭商店,部分原因是他们已经全面调整了其实体店位置,既便于线上订单的配送,又便于买家取货。

2019年,零售企业破产及门店关闭数量创下纪录,共有9,832家门店关闭,之后,关店潮仍在继续。2020年,有8,741家门店关闭,到目前为止,2021年已有3,169家门店关闭。但又有数千家新店开业,标志着零售业革新的开始。开设新店的零售商包括一元店(dollar stores)等连锁店,以及在大型商场内设有门店的一些品牌零售商,包括迪克体育用品(Dick’s Sporting Goods),美妆连锁店Ulta Beauty等等。(钜富中国网)

翻译:郝秀

审校:汪皓

Even though the past few years have brought countless announcements of store closings, U.S. retailers should brace for much more to come. In a research note published on Monday, UBS forecast that some 80,000 retail stores, or roughly 9% of the current total, will shut their doors permanently by 2026.

The forecast is based on the assumption that e-commerce as a percentage of total retail sales jumps to 27%—up from 18% now, which is already several percentage points higher than had been expected by this time.

“An enduring legacy of the pandemic is that online penetration rose sharply,” retail equity analyst Michael Lasser writes in the 94-page research note to clients. “We expect that it will continue to increase, which will drive further rationalization of retail stores.”

Financial results from some major retailers support Lasser’s assertion. Nordstrom got 54% of its sales online in the holiday quarter, while Macy’s generated 44% that way. Gap Inc. said e-commerce represented nearly half its business in its most recent fiscal year. Speaking of Gap, the company took advantage of the COVID-19 turmoil to close many stores in its namesake chain, betting that at least half of the brand’s business will soon move online for good.

UBS predicted that apparel retailers would account for the biggest chunk of store closings, with 21,000 of the total, much of that happening in indoor shopping malls. (Retailers in strip malls have been largely shielded from the recent carnage.)

Next are consumer electronics with 8,000 likely-to-close locations, and home furnishings with 7,000. Both those categories are growing overall but seeing a faster proportion of their sales go online than retail in general. Best Buy, a big winner during the pandemic, recently announced it would shrink some of the sales floors at its stores so that more space could be used for servicing e-commerce orders.

General merchandise big-box retailers like Target and Walmart are not closing stores, in part because they have overhauled their physical locations to enable filling online orders and letting shoppers retrieve orders there.

While 2019 was the high-water mark for U.S. closings, with 9,832 during a record year for retail bankruptcies, they have continued since then. After 8,741 closings last year, some 3,169 have shuttered so far in 2021. But in a sign of retail’s reinvention, several thousand new locations have opened. Chains that have added stores include dollar stores and some brands that are fixtures in strip malls, including Dick’s Sporting Goods and Ulta Beauty.

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